Kirk Cousins is a Viking again. He averaged 19.1 full PPR points per game for Las Vegas this season, the same as his best Minnesota year in 2020. He replaces Carson Wentz, who scored -2.8 points in Week 9. Move Justin Jefferson back to every-week WR1 status, bump T.J. Hockenson and treat Jordan Addison as a flex with upside. In Las Vegas, Brock Bowers stays a must-start. The rest of the Raiders' passing game takes a hit with Fernando Mendoza.
The trade
Minnesota sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas on deadline day. A veteran QB was the Vikings' top priority after Wentz went 8/25 on Monday night against Buffalo. Wentz has a 68.3 rating over three starts. His weekly scores tell the same story: 19.2 in Week 1, 6.3 in Week 2, -2.8 in Week 9.
The Vikings are 6-2 anyway. The defense is carrying them: 14.5 points allowed per game. The offense scores only 18.3.
Kyler Murray has played six games for Minnesota this year at 12.3 points per game with a 16.9% carry share. Wentz started Week 9 anyway, and no news was found on Murray's status or why he wasn't the answer.
| QB | Team | Games | Points per game | Carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 9 | 19.1 | 9.4% |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | 6 | 12.3 | 16.9% |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | 3 | 7.6 | 11.2% |
| Max Brosmer | MIN | 1 | 2.3 | 0.0% |
Cousins in 2026: back to his Minnesota level
Cousins played 98% of the Raiders' snaps and threw for 2340 yards, 20 TDs and 8 INTs in nine games. His weekly range ran from 12.6 to 28.2 points. The low came in Week 9 against San Francisco: 3 INTs as the offense turned it over 5 times.
The Atlanta years are the dip in the chart. In 2024 he came off a torn Achilles. He took a hit to his right shoulder and elbow in Week 10 at New Orleans, played through it, and then threw 9 INTs and 1 TD over five games before Atlanta benched him for Michael Penix Jr. He averaged 12.6 points per game that year and 10.4 in 2025. The 2026 line says that stretch is behind him.
| Kirk Cousins | |
|---|---|
| 2018 MIN | 17.7pts |
| 2019 MIN | 16.3pts |
| 2020 MIN | 19.1pts |
| 2021 MIN | 18.8pts |
| 2022 MIN | 17.2pts |
| 2023 MIN | 18.7pts |
| 2024 ATL | 12.6pts |
| 2025 ATL | 10.4pts |
| 2026 LV | 19.1pts |
From 2018 through 2023 in Minnesota, he never averaged less than 16.3 points per game. In 2022, his first year under Kevin O'Connell, he threw 643 passes for 4547 yards, the Vikings passed on 65.9% of plays and went 13-4. O'Connell is still the coach.
What it means for Justin Jefferson
Jefferson's best seasons came with Cousins: 17.1 points per game in 2020, 19.4 in 2021, 21.7 in 2022 and 20.2 in 2023. In 2022 he turned 184 targets into 1809 yards.
Then the QB carousel hit. In 2025 he dropped to a career-low 11.9 per game with 2 TDs, even with a 30.7% target share. A 2025 game with J.J. McCarthy summed it up: 12 targets, 7.7 points. That was a QB-quality problem, not a target problem.
2026 looked like a repeat. Jefferson holds a 28.7% share at 13.6 per game. In Week 9 with Wentz he drew 11 targets, a 36.7% share, and scored 8.8. The volume is there. Cousins fixes what happens after the ball leaves.
| Justin Jefferson | |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 17.1pts |
| 2021 | 19.4pts |
| 2022 | 21.7pts |
| 2023 | 20.2pts |
| 2024 | 18.7pts |
| 2025 | 11.9pts |
| 2026 | 13.6pts |
Addison, Hockenson and Jones
Addison's season with Cousins was 2023: 10 TDs, 13.0 points per game, a 17.7% share. This year he has more of the targets, 20.0%, and plays 92% of snaps, but scores only 7.7 per game with 1 TD. His weeks include 0, 4.1, 4.3 and 4.8. The role is fine. The passes were not. He is a Week 10 flex and a buy for the rest of the season.
Hockenson has a 20.5% share at 10.7 per game. With Cousins he scored 13.2 per game in 2022 and 14.6 in 2023. Start him.
Aaron Jones holds a 52.8% carry share at 10.4 per game. A better passing game should put him in scoring range more often.
| Season | Jefferson pts/game | Jefferson target share | Addison pts/game | Addison target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 17.1 | 25.3% | — | — |
| 2021 | 19.4 | 29.4% | — | — |
| 2022 | 21.7 | 28.3% | — | — |
| 2023 | 20.2 | 28.1% | 13.0 | 17.7% |
| 2024 | 18.7 | 30.1% | 14.2 | 21.2% |
| 2025 | 11.9 | 30.7% | 9.7 | 18.2% |
| 2026 | 13.6 | 28.7% | 7.7 | 20.0% |
One flag: Minnesota LT Christian Darrisaw was questionable before Monday night. Watch his status for Cousins' protection.
Las Vegas with Mendoza
Mendoza's only action this year came in Week 5 against New England: 17% of snaps, 1 carry, 2.2 points. There was already Mendoza-or-Cousins chatter after Cousins' 3 INTs. Now the job looks like his. Seattle visits in Week 10 and was missing key starters on its defensive front last week.
Bowers is the safe piece. He has a 28.7% target share and 20.9 points per game, and he scored 22.3 in Week 9 while the rest of the offense collapsed. His history with lesser QBs backs that up. In 2024 he drew a 41.2% share and scored 30.2 with Aidan O'Connell, and a 41% share for 31.3 with Gardner Minshew.
| Brock Bowers | |
|---|---|
| Wk 3 | 27.6pts |
| Wk 4 | 20.6pts |
| Wk 5 | 23.0pts |
| Wk 6 | 11.0pts |
| Wk 7 | 13.3pts |
| Wk 8 | 28.2pts |
| Wk 9 | 22.3pts |
Ashton Jeanty has a 51.3% carry share and a 17.8% target share at 15.5 per game. Those 55 targets give him a floor with a new QB, but the Raiders ran for just 24 yards in Week 9. Tre Tucker (12.1 per game) and Michael Mayer (9.1) drop to bench or deep-league flex.
| Player | Pos | Games | Target share | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | TE | 7 | 28.7% | 20.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 9 | 17.8% | 15.5 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | 9 | 17.4% | 12.1 |
| Michael Mayer | TE | 9 | 15.0% | 9.1 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | 7 | 12.6% | 4.6 |
Week 10 moves
- Start Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson with confidence.
- Flex Jordan Addison. His 20.0% share should finally pay off.
- Start Cousins as a QB2 or streamer if Minnesota confirms him for Week 10. A short week in a new building is the only worry.
- Start Brock Bowers. He produced with backups before.
- Hold Ashton Jeanty as an RB2. Downgrade Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer.
- Mendoza is a superflex dart only.
For the Vikings' last game, see the Bills at Vikings simulation. For more role shifts, see Week 9 usage risers and fallers.
How this was computed
- Game stats cover the 2018 through 2026 seasons, through Week 9 of 2026.
- Points per game are season points divided by games played.
- Target and carry shares are the player's portion of his team's targets or carries in the games he played. Weekly shares are for that game alone.
- Season lines are full seasons, so the 2023 numbers include games Cousins missed.
- Left out: Minnesota's Week 10 opponent, and any reason for Murray's role, since no news was found on it.
