Final: BUF 23, MIN 6 (halftime BUF 10, MIN 6)
- Held: The Bills win (62%): yes
- The sim’s average: BUF 24.1, MIN 20.6
- Missed: Total points (6 in 10): 29, outside 34–55
- Held: James Cook scores the first TD (16%): no
- Held: Josh Allen scores a TD (27%): no
- Held: Josh Allen passing yards (6 in 10): 234, inside 185–285
- Missed: Josh Allen rushing yards (6 in 10): 15, outside 16–51
- Held: DJ Moore scores a TD (23%): no
- Missed: Carson Wentz passing yards (6 in 10): 81, outside 174–270
- Held: T.J. Hockenson scores a TD (33%): no
- Held: T.J. Hockenson receiving yards (6 in 10): 33, inside 25–74
- Held: James Cook scores a TD (53%): yes
- Held: James Cook rushing yards (6 in 10): 107, inside 56–115
- Held: Jordan Mason scores a TD (41%): no
- Held: Jordan Mason rushing yards (6 in 10): 35, inside 31–76
- Held: Dalton Kincaid scores a TD (34%): no
- Held: Dalton Kincaid receiving yards (6 in 10): 28, inside 23–77
- Held: Keon Coleman scores a TD (20%): no
- Held: Keon Coleman receiving yards (6 in 10): 17, inside 12–56
- Held: Khalil Shakir scores a TD (33%): no
- Held: Khalil Shakir receiving yards (6 in 10): 53, inside 22–74
- Held: Jordan Addison receiving yards (6 in 10): 28, inside 19–67
- Held: Aaron Jones scores a TD (34%): no
- Missed: Aaron Jones rushing yards (6 in 10): 16, outside 19–53
- Held: Justin Jefferson scores a TD (35%): no
- Held: Justin Jefferson receiving yards (6 in 10): 58, inside 33–87
- Held: DJ Moore has 15+ receiving yards (74%): yes
- Missed: Josh Allen has 20+ rushing yards (72%): no
- Missed: Both of the two to watch (53%): no
- Held: The Bills lead at halftime (54%): yes
- Held: When the Bills lead at halftime, the Bills win (82%): yes
- Held: The Bills outscore the other side after halftime (52%): yes
- Held: James Cook has 30+ rushing yards after halftime (67%): yes
The Bills win 62% of 10,000 simulations. The average score is Bills 24, Vikings 21, and the total lands between 34 and 55 points in 6 games of 10. Two to watch: DJ Moore has 15+ receiving yards (74%) and Josh Allen has 20+ rushing yards (72%); both happen in 53% of the simulations.
The game in 10,000 simulations
The Bills win 62% of the simulations and the Vikings 38%. Each team’s points vary a lot from one simulated game to the next, so the table shows the middle 6 games in 10 beside the average.
| Wins | Average points | Middle 6 in 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 62% | 24.1 | 17–31 |
| Vikings | 38% | 20.6 | 13–27 |
| Total | – | 44.7 | 34–55 |
Two to watch
Of everything a single player can do in this game, these two outcomes each happen in at least 6 simulations of 10, and together they happen most often: DJ Moore has 15+ receiving yards in 74% of the games, Josh Allen has 20+ rushing yards in 72%, and both in 53%. As two unrelated chances they’d come up together 53% of the time; in the simulations they come up more often, because the same games produce them.
Who scores
James Cook scores in 53% of the simulations, the most of anyone. The likeliest first touchdown is James Cook’s, in 16% of the games. A touchdown is never likely for more than a handful of players: past the top few, most score in fewer than 1 game in 5.
| Touchdown chance | |
|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF) | 53% |
| Jordan Mason (MIN) | 41% |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 35% |
| Aaron Jones (MIN) | 34% |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 34% |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 33% |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 33% |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 27% |
| DJ Moore (BUF) | 23% |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 20% |
Yardage ranges
The average is what a player gets across the 10,000 games; the range is where the middle 6 of 10 land. A wide range means the game script swings it: a lead, a deficit, or one long play.
| Player | Team | Yards | Average | Middle 6 in 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | passing | 236 | 185–285 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | passing | 222 | 174–270 |
| James Cook | BUF | rushing | 87 | 56–115 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | receiving | 61 | 33–87 |
| Jordan Mason | MIN | rushing | 54 | 31–76 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | receiving | 51 | 23–77 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | receiving | 51 | 25–74 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | receiving | 49 | 22–74 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | receiving | 45 | 19–67 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | rushing | 37 | 19–53 |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | receiving | 35 | 12–56 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | rushing | 34 | 16–51 |
What goes together
The simulations show which outcomes travel together. Each line is how often the second thing happens in the games where the first one does, against how often it happens overall.
- When the Bills lead at halftime, the Bills win (82%).
- When the Vikings lead at halftime, the Bills win anyway (31%).
- When Carson Wentz throws 2+ TDs, the game has 45+ points (70%, against 49% overall).
- When Josh Allen throws 2+ TDs, the game has 45+ points (66%, against 49% overall).
- When Carson Wentz throws 2+ TDs, the Bills win by 4+ (34%, against 50% overall).
2nd Half Adjustments
At halftime the Bills lead in 54% of the simulations and the Vikings in 37% (8% are tied). When the Bills lead at the half they go on to win 82% of the time; when the Vikings lead, the Bills still win 31%. After halftime the Bills outscore the other side in 52% of the games, and the second half’s points land between 14 and 29 in 6 games of 10.
James Cook has 30+ rushing yards after halftime in 67% of the simulations, the most yards any back or receiver clears that often in a second half.
This season so far, the Bills have scored 16.1 and allowed 14.1 a game after halftime (7 games), against 17.1 and 11.7 before it; the Vikings have scored 11.3 and allowed 5.4 a game after halftime (7 games), against 8.7 and 7.9 before it. A team’s second-half edge carries only weakly from one part of a season to the next: in 2024 and 2025, how much better a team was after halftime than before it in Weeks 1–9 told little about Weeks 10–18. So the simulation doesn’t lean on these splits; they’re context, not the call.
The news it plays with
As of Sunday afternoon; Monday morning's check can change it. Minnesota is without quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring), whom Kevin O'Connell ruled out Thursday and called week-to-week, so Carson Wentz starts; he took most of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, when Murray was out with a concussion. Wide receiver Jauan Jennings (calf) and running back Demond Claiborne (knee) are also out, and the run spreads Jennings' targets across the other receivers by their shares. Jordan Mason came off injured reserve in Week 7 and has 23 carries to Aaron Jones' 13 since, after Jones carried the load while Mason was out, so the run splits the backfield about evenly instead of using Jones' season-long share. For Buffalo, wide receiver Josh Palmer (hamstring) is out. DJ Moore was limited Thursday but listed only with an older shoulder injury, and he plays. Left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) didn't practice all week and is questionable, as is left guard Alec Anderson (ankle); the run doesn't model linemen one by one, so their status shows up only through the market's lines.
How the simulation works
Every play comes from real plays: the offense’s own from this season and last, the plays its opponent’s defense allowed, and the league’s, picked by down, distance, field position, score and time. A pass goes to its target and a run to its ball carrier by this season’s shares, with players ruled out taken off, and the clock runs as fast as real games run it.
The simulation is tuned to the market: its chance of each margin and each total matches the prices of the game’s lines. On its own, replayed over the 2025 season, it ordered teams much like the closing lines did but never beat them, so it isn’t here to pick a side. What it adds is the shape of the game: each player’s range, and what goes together.
Every number in this article is checked after the game. What happened goes at the top.
